MALIBU – Soon it will be time to get paid. Five years after the greatest college pitcher in decades left the relatively easy life of Friday night starts, Missouri’s Max Scherzer pitched in front of 20 radar guns in his final start before he becomes a first-round pick on Tuesday. His advisor, Scott Boras, sat gingerly behind home plate, the cell phone glued to his ear. Scherzer is one of his guys and when the draft begins, the right-hander’s name will be among the first called.

Facing Pepperdine in the NCAA Regional at Malibu Friday, Scherzer threw his fastball in the 91-93 range. His curveball, on occasion, was deadly. His command on this day was marginal, good enough to compete against college hitters, but had he been pitching in the major leagues, he would have been hit harder. That’s of no concern when you’re a college pitcher. Life is great when you get away with mistakes.

Five years earlier, the same horde of scouts who monitored Scherzer had been doing the same thing for Mark Prior at USC. Scherzer will soon leave behind the friendly world of college baseball. All he has to do is look back to the time when Prior was leaving college with the tag of a limitless future to know that the real world of baseball is much less forgiving than the college game.

Prior had everything and the scouts were unanimous. In a dirty business of bluffing and deception that would make Hamlet cry, it was virtually impossible to find someone who had a bad word to say about Prior.

He had the pitcher’s frame, a 6-5, 220-pound build with calves that looked like he had stuffed bricks in his sanitary socks. He had not one power pitch, but two – a fastball he could nail a shot glass with and a curveball that was like hitting a baseball dropped from a blimp. His command was leagues above ordinary college pitchers. His mechanics, work ethic, intellect, competitiveness, and approach all scored so highly that, for the team that drafted Prior, it would be as simple as walking to the grocery store, picking him off the shelf, dropping him in the cart, and pushing him to the big leagues.

The Twins had the first pick. Weary of Prior’s price tag, which eventually reached $10.5 million, they debated between Prior and a rarity – a high school catcher with power. The Twins got a hometown discount when they signed Joe Mauer. They took the younger player, who in theory should have his best development in front of him. The Twins bought him out of a college baseball and football double life at Florida State, and if ever a team would be weary about how playing both sports at the major college level can stunt a baseball player’s growth, look no further than former Stanford outfielder and quarterback Joe Borchard.

The Cubs had the second pick. Prior was already the finished, pristine product. Though his delivery was so fluid that few questioned his health, there were the obvious questions that were mostly drowned out by the flood of admiration. Did he place too much stress on his elbow? Would he remain healthy? Like the Atlanta Braves in 1990, who took high school shortstop Chipper Jones instead of high school right-hander Todd Van Poppel with the first pick, the Twins choose Mauer, taking bat over arm in an expensive game of rock, paper, and scissors.

Five years later, Prior’s career hasn’t gone as expected. He made a courtesy visit to the minor leagues before coming to Wrigley Field in May 2002, less than a year after he was dicing up Deadeaux Field. He hurt himself in September of that year, a sign of things to come. It was his first of six trips to the disabled list in his first five years. He was an 18-game winner in 2003 and went to the All-Star game. He outdueled Greg Maddux in the National League Divisional Series.

Prior has been on the run from the doctor ever since. Actually, he’s lucky that he can still stand. As the Cubs 2003 playoff run has dissolved like a spilled beer in the bleachers, Prior’s career has gone downhill. He bruised his shoulder in 2003, which cost him a 20-win season. He missed three months of 2004 with right Achilles tendenitis, pitched in only 21 games, and went 6-4.

Last year, he was solid on a poor team, going 11-7 with 188 strikeouts in 166 2/3 innings, but missed time, first because of inflammation, then because of a fracture in his right elbow. That’s not good in the baseball business. That’s called, ‘Having a medical.’ This season, he has yet to pitch, and he’ll spend the anniversary of his heralded draft selection on a rehabilitation assignment in the minor leagues. A strained muscle in his right shoulder has cost him the first two months of this season.

Having a medical history is baseball’s version of baggage, Five years after Prior left USC, there still hasn’t been a college pitcher of his quality (including Jered Weaver). Prior was 15-1, 1.69 that year and had 202 strikeouts against 18 walks in 139 innings. The sad part is that, because of his injury history, the best Prior has ever been was in his final year at USC in 2001 and in his first full season with the Cubs in 2003. Meanwhile, Mauer has steadily improved and become one of the game’s best young catchers.

Prior is only 25, and though his lifetime record of 41-27 looks nice, the same scouts who watched Scherzer today know Prior can be so much better if he can only stay healthy. Prior’s time is nowhere near expired, but as of now, he’s more parable than pitcher, a warning to kids like Scherzer. Enjoy these moments, because when draft day comes and goes, you never know where you’ll be standing five years from today.